Nason Investment Research

EXPECTING STAGFLATION / REFLATION MACRO BULLISH MARKET TOP SOME TIME IN OCTOBER.

2024: Wild cards include banking crisis, supply chain disruption, World War, Civil War, Interest rates, Inflation, hyperinflation, Disease X, Cyberwar, National Debt, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
LONG: T-Bills, Gold, Silver, Crypto, AI, Robotics, Commodities, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Gold, Metals, Miners, Selective China, Selective Defense, Selective Pharma.

AVOID: Overbought stocks, high beta, momentum, high P/E, profitless tech, commercial REITs, regional banks, Junk. Hype.

4/28/24: WARNING: WEEKLY SP500 IS OVERBOUGHT. DAILY SP500 CHART IS OVERSOLD AND RSI IS BEARISH. The monthly chart indicates that the bull market may top out in OCTOBER.

PUBLIC CHART LIST: https://stockcharts.com/public/1819606

1/18/24 sold PINK and XLV (overbought) added TLT, AVB, RYCEY, FXI, SVOL, HSY, KNTK, ARKK(1/19)
1/22/44 added CVX 1/23/24 removed ARKK RYCEY 1/23/24 SOLD TAP VNM added VALE PBR and more IBIT and BITO 1/24/24 sold NSC 1/25/24 sold T VZ VWO bought PATH added to TLT 1/26/24 sold FXI 1/30 bought ALKS PX 2/5/24 Added STM and BTI longs 2/7/24 Added BAX (earnings bet)
2/8/24 Added TTD (TipRanks 10) 2/9/24 added ALB 2/12 added EVT 2/14/24 added COCO

EXPECTING STAGFLATION AND/OR REFLATION for 2024: Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Disease X, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. We are 25% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 5% physical gold ETFs, 4% SILVER, 66% mix of stocks that perform well considering the current global macro forecast.

WARNING: SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM charts ARE ALL OVERBOUGHT NOW.

1/1/24 (GLOBAL) RECESSION macro scenario unfolding for Jan-Feb followed by Stagflation in Mar-Apr, reflation in May-Jun, more stagflation in July, then Goldilocks rally in August followed by more stagflation… Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Worst. Asset classes: Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Worst sectors: energy, tech, industrials, financials. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 50% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 5% physical gold ETFs, 4% SILVER, 41% mix of stocks that perform well in a recession. Select utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, REITS, low BETA.

WARNING: SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM charts ARE ALL OVERBOUGHT NOW.

JAN/FEB expectations:
(1) Bond Yields Down (because GROWTH is slowing)
(2) Gold Up, Oil & Commodities Down
(3) LOW BETA Utilities (XLU), Healthcare, etc. Up, Cyclicals like Energy and Consumer Discretionary Down

12/28/23 (GLOBAL) RECESSION macro scenario unfolding for Jan-Feb followed by Stagflation in Mar-Apr, reflation in May-Jun, more stagflation in July, then Goldilocks rally in August followed by more stagflation… Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Worst. Asset classes: Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Worst sectors: energy, tech, industrials, financials. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 50% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 10% physical gold ETFs, 4% SILVER, 36% mix of stocks that perform well considering the current global macro environment predicted for the next 12 months.

WARNING: SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM charts ARE ALL OVERBOUGHT NOW.

12/1/23 (GLOBAL) RECESSION macro scenario unfolding for Jan-Feb followed by Stagflation in Mar-Apr, reflation in May-Jun, more stagflation in July, then Goldilocks rally in August followed by more stagflation… Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Worst. Asset classes: Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Worst sectors: energy, tech, industrials, financials. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 45% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 15% physical gold ETFs, 4% SILVER, 36% mix of stocks that perform well considering the current global macro environment predicted for 2024. WARNING: DAILY, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY charts are all OVERBOUGHT right now.

Current portfolio: https://stockcharts.com/public/1819606

11/21/23 (GLOBAL) RECESSION macro scenario unfolding for Jan-Feb followed by Stagflation in Mar-Apr, reflation in May-Jun, more stagflation in July, then Goldilocks rally in August followed by more stagflation… Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Worst. Asset classes: Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Worst sectors: energy, tech, industrials, financials. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 45% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 15% physical gold ETFs, 40% mix of consumer staples, utilities, healthcare and communications ETFs. Select energy stocks. Normally we would also be long REITs but not in this banking and mortgage crisis scenario. WARNING: Short term, intermediate, and long term charts are all overbought right now.

11/13/23 RECESSION macro scenario unfolding. Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 50% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 15% physical gold ETFs (AAAU, GLD and PHYS), 2% AMZN, 33% mix of XLP, XLU, consumer staples and utilities. Normally we would also be long REITs but not in this case.

10/31/23 Alternating monthly STAGFLATION and RECESSION macro scenarios unfolding. Best backtested stagflation asset classes: Gold and commodities. Best backtested stagflation equity styles: Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Energy, Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Best backtested recession equity sectors are: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data – not just U.S. We are approximately 30% 1-3 month T-Bills, 10% gold, 2% silver, 58% special situations, high yield stocks and defensive equities. WE REMAIN VERY DEFENSIVE. Technical Analysis: SPY Ten year chart is NEUTRAL. SPY three year chart is OVERSOLD. SPY One Year Chart is OVERSOLD.

Public Chart List: https://stockcharts.com/public/1819606

9/29/23 Alternating monthly STAGFLATION and RECESSION macro scenarios unfolding. Best backtested stagflation asset classes: Gold and commodities. Best backtested stagflation equity styles: Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Energy, Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Best backtested recession equity sectors are: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, First Ever downgrade of U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data – not just U.S. We are approximately 30% 1-3 month T-Bills, 10% gold, 3% silver, 57% special situations and defensive equities. WE REMAIN VERY DEFENSIVE. Technical Analysis: SPY Ten year chart is OVERBOUGHT. SPY three year chart is UNWINDING FROM OVERBOUGHT. SPY One Year Chart is OVERSOLD and at 200 EMA support.

Stay in CASH until March of 2023 or SP500 2900 – whichever comes first. The outlook looks bad for bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but it is what it is!

Alex